Olaf’s Frozen Adventure

Turning away from Israel: Whatever solidarity Germans felt for Israel at the outset of the war has all but evaporated, according to today’s Politbarometer, a regular poll for ZDF public television on questions driving the political debate.
Nearly 70 percent of Germans say Israel’s military response to the October 7 massacre and kidnappings is not justified, the representative poll found. Only 18 percent of Germans support Israel’s unyielding response to Hamas. The vast majority — 87 percent — want Western countries to put more pressure on the Israeli government to allow more humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.
Fair-weather friends: After an initial outpouring for Israel amid shock over the gruesome October 7 killings, Germans have increasingly turned away. In December, 45 percent of the population considered Israel’s military response “measured.”
European solidarity with Israel is down across the board. Yet considering Germany’s historic responsibility toward the Jewish people — and the fact that the government has declared Israel’s security German Staatsräson — the fleeting nature of German support is particularly surprising.
Anti-Israel lobby: From the Berlinale film festival to the Munich Security Conference, Israel’s enemies have been out in force in recent weeks, calling for Germany to take a tougher line on the Gaza war.
Elders of Munich: MSC chairman Christoph Heusgen, the longtime foreign policy adviser of Angela Merkel, has become Israel’s most prominent detractor in the German establishment, telling German radio on Friday that if “humanity” is the utmost priority the U.S. needs to look at “halting financial and military aid” to Israel.  
Bad for Bibi: Germany’s shift is particularly bad news for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategy to eradicate Hamas. Israel considers Germany its closest ally after the U.S. Now it finds itself at loggerheads with both over the war.
Olaf not chill: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who like U.S. President Joe Biden fears a backlash at home over Netanyahu’s hard line on Gaza, visited Israel last weekend for what was by all accounts a chilly exchange. Beyond registering his dismay over Israel’s strategy for defending itself against radical Islamists who want to wipe the country off the face of the map, Scholz appears to have achieved little.
There was one thing: Scholz spent the night in Aqaba, Jordan’s Red Sea port, where he enjoyed a leisurely run before heading to Jerusalem.   
Speaking of chill: We (read I) were supposed to be off this week. But instead, we’re here on a Friday making lame “Frozen”-themed puns because our German friends once again conspired against us with a mind-numbing debate over Russia’s war on Ukraine and how far Berlin should go in helping Kyiv defend itself (and the rest of Europe, btw).
Bottom line: Still no Taurus. Despite the incessant sturm and drang (or maybe as a result of it), Scholz hasn’t budged on sending cruise missiles to Ukraine and our bet is he won’t. He and his SPD comrades are now as entrenched on the issue as the Russians in Donbas.
Teutonic riddle: Were we German (full disclosure: We did have a great-grandmother from Hamburg, but she had the good sense to marry an Austrian, diluting the gene pool), we might find it strange that our chancellor was constantly coming up with new, shifting explanations for not sending the missiles. Instead, as noted previously, Germans are solidly behind Scholz on this front, suggesting we will see more of the same.
Chamberlain vibes: As reported last week, the suggestion by SPD caucus leader Rolf Mützenich for Ukraine to “freeze” the conflict and pursue a diplomatic resolution with Moscow created something of a stir in Berlin. Since then, that stir has strengthened into a category 5 shitstorm within Scholz’s three-way coalition, with the FDP’s Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, the leader of the Bundestag’s defense committee, accusing Mützenich of pursuing “a policy of appeasement” (and that was one of the more charitable comments).
The red balloon: “We call it Testballon.” That’s what one helpful X denizen told us this week about Mützenich’s frozen fantasies, suggesting Berlin just wanted to dip a toe in the waters of appeasement.
How’s that going? The combination of Scholz’s refusal to send Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine with the Mützenich flap has effectively undone whatever goodwill Germany recently enjoyed in Europe over the military aid it has sent to Ukraine. Scholz acknowledged as much this week. “The debate in Germany is beyond ridiculous,” Scholz said. “It’s embarrassing for Germany.”
Pot or kettle? The chancellor is right about the embarrassment.  He conveniently glossed over that fact that he and his party are largely to blame for it, however. “What do you mean by ridiculous,” opposition leader Friedrich Merz of the CDU asked Scholz during a spirited parliamentary debate this week. “Is it a reference to your caucus leader, the Greens, the FDP or the condition of your coalition?”
‘Dangerous’ talk? “The debate is not ridiculous, it’s dangerous,” Merz went on. “Dangerous for peace in Europe and the Ukraine.”
Meet Mützenich: Now there’s no reason anyone outside of Germany should have ever heard of Mützenich, but he’s an interesting figure for a couple of reasons. For one, he proves that no matter how eccentric your politics are, you can be a major political player in Germany (a bit like America, in fact).
Nukes, Nein Danke! For years, Mützenich’s hobby horse involved railing against the presence of American nuclear weapons on German soil. He tried and failed to enshrine that goal in the coalition agreement. Things have been quiet on that front since Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine, however.
Let’s reflect: The holy grail for the leader of the largest party in the German parliament has been to try to force the withdrawal of America’s nuclear umbrella over Germany.  
Reasonable Germans could be forgiven for thinking that after living and prospering under the U.S. security umbrella for 70-plus years it would be a good idea to maintain that arrangement. But that argument never fooled Mützenich.
True believer: That’s a roundabout way of saying that Mützenich’s flirt with frozen conflict in Ukraine is perfectly consistent with his long career as an SPD peacenik. Like others of his ilk in the party (including Scholz) those instincts are rooted in a deep skepticism of America’s role in the world.
Genie, meet bottle: In the days following Mützenich’s speech, Scholz and his surrogates were out in force defending his remarks. Yet once it became clear how corrosive they were, especially to Germany’s international reputation, they quickly reversed course, claiming — somewhat credulously — that Scholz was annoyed by Mützenich’s initiative. But it was too little, too late and too unbelievable. I unpacked this very Scholzian episode here.
WHAT WOULD ADOLF THINK? The sporting goods firm founded by Nazi shoemaker Adolf Dassler, Adidas, lost its long-standing contract with the German Football Federation. Beginning in 2027, Nike will supply the German national team with jerseys and other gear.
End of an era: Adidas has outfitted the German squad with shoes and other kit for more than 70 years, including during the legendary Miracle of Bern, making the company all but synonymous with German football.
Football traitors? Given that history, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck and other politicians were less than enthusiastic about the switch. Habeck called for more “patriotism” when it comes to such decisions. “I can’t imagine the German jersey without the three stripes,” he said, referring to Adidas’ signature logo.
Moneyball: From the sounds it, however, Nike made the Germans an offer they couldn’t refuse.
HIGH CHAMBER: Germany’s upper chamber, the Bundesrat, on Friday cleared the way for the legalization of cannabis, beginning April 1.
WACHSTUMSCHANCENGESETZ: Trying saying that five times in row! What’s behind that mouthful is a new law, also passed Friday by the Bundesrat, aimed at stimulating Germany’s economy. Trouble is, it only will provide incentives totaling about €3 billion, which is little more than a drop in the bucket for an economy of Germany’s size. Though certainly better than nothing, the struggle to get the law passed despite Germany’s economic straits reflects just how dysfunctional the country’s politics have become.
EGG HUNT: Olaf and trusty helpers will be off coloring Easter eggs from tomorrow. Political Berlin kicks into gear again until April 8. The Bulletin will be on recess until that week as well. We promise! So Happy Easter to those who celebrate.
EASTER READING: Here’s a very interesting piece by Jeremy Stern, a former aide to ex-U.S. ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell, on Germany’s far right. And here’s a fascinating deep dive into how Germany’s vaunted apprenticeship system is evolving at a time of skilled-worker shortages.
Hate mail: Send complaints (if you must), tips, checks and random thoughts to mkarnitschnig @politico.eu. You’ll also find me on X @mkarnitschnig.
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